Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.019011 0.021551 0.024309 0.027527 0.031182 0.035204 0.039968
2025-06-08 0.014735 0.018159 0.022203 0.027333 0.033678 0.041279 0.051092
2025-06-15 0.012800 0.016696 0.021566 0.028109 0.036689 0.047582 0.062505
2025-06-22 0.010785 0.014732 0.019898 0.027170 0.037172 0.050488 0.069639
2025-06-29 0.009449 0.013433 0.018859 0.026812 0.038214 0.054035 0.077772
2025-07-06 0.008210 0.012091 0.017570 0.025894 0.038277 0.056105 0.083886
2025-07-13 0.007711 0.011734 0.017603 0.026823 0.041017 0.062166 0.096304
2025-07-20 0.007216 0.011318 0.017487 0.027481 0.043363 0.067792 0.108537
2025-07-27 0.006829 0.011019 0.017501 0.028312 0.046013 0.074064 0.122317
2025-08-03 0.006268 0.010384 0.016923 0.028125 0.046985 0.077718 0.132131
2025-08-10 0.005811 0.009869 0.016481 0.028103 0.048194 0.081815 0.143000
2025-08-17 0.005326 0.009262 0.015828 0.027653 0.048614 0.084587 0.151781
2025-08-24 0.005028 0.008956 0.015669 0.028061 0.050598 0.090281 0.166412
2025-08-31 0.004655 0.008487 0.015189 0.027859 0.051479 0.094114 0.178049
2025-09-07 0.004472 0.008339 0.015260 0.028651 0.054225 0.101529 0.197041
2025-09-14 0.004057 0.007726 0.014432 0.027694 0.053597 0.102608 0.203938
2025-09-21 0.003764 0.007316 0.013943 0.027329 0.054055 0.105759 0.215151
2025-09-28 0.003428 0.006793 0.013195 0.026393 0.053301 0.106469 0.221473
2025-10-05 0.003345 0.006760 0.013390 0.027340 0.056395 0.115055 0.244830
2025-10-12 0.003235 0.006663 0.013449 0.028010 0.058973 0.122802 0.267125
2025-10-19 0.003149 0.006610 0.013588 0.028858 0.061988 0.131696 0.292723
2025-10-26 0.002966 0.006335 0.013252 0.028667 0.062762 0.135904 0.308335
2025-11-02 0.002812 0.006111 0.013004 0.028645 0.063895 0.140970 0.326340